Saturday, December 14, 2013
Board Status
It looks like we've got some hardware trouble that caused some database trouble. We are working on it and hope to have the site back up and fully operational by tonight.
In the mean time, feel free to comment here with your thoughts. I will myself.
Friday's trading was not good and bodes ill for the next week or two.
Mark
In the mean time, feel free to comment here with your thoughts. I will myself.
Friday's trading was not good and bodes ill for the next week or two.
Mark
Sunday, August 4, 2013
Database Error--We are Working On It
Traders-Talk is down, but we are working on it.
We initially didn't realize that this was more than a temporary glitch and only realized today that we had a more serious problem.
Our apologies for the delay. We will be putting in the hours to get back up for you. Thank you for your patience.
Mark
We initially didn't realize that this was more than a temporary glitch and only realized today that we had a more serious problem.
Our apologies for the delay. We will be putting in the hours to get back up for you. Thank you for your patience.
Mark
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Market Comments
Use this thread if you with to document trades or otherwise share analysis. Just comment. If you need more, drop me a line at "Service" at "WallStreetSentiment" dot com.
Site Up and Down
We are working on some security updates and as such Traders-talk.com will be up and down several times. That's the bad news. The good news is that we'll be able to restore and augment some of our functionality.
In any case, we're on things and it should be better by tonight. I'll also start a market comments thread above.
If you need to reach me, use "service" at "wallstreetsentiment" dot com.
Best,
Mark
In any case, we're on things and it should be better by tonight. I'll also start a market comments thread above.
If you need to reach me, use "service" at "wallstreetsentiment" dot com.
Best,
Mark
Sunday, March 25, 2012
We will be down for a bit this evening.
We should be back up and then down later tomorrow for a bit again. If all goes well that should be it.
Mark
Mark
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Mark Comment Thread
Just in case you guys want to share something timely, use this thread. I'll copy it to T-T when we're back up.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Heads Up!
This is the place to look for updates or to post in the event we are down while we are updating Traders-Talk.com
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
The Fed's Secret Plan
The Fed's Secret Plan
by Mark Young
(originally published in the Guru Review)
It is no secret that the Fed is essentially printing money. Liquidity is being created by the tens of billions daily. This has more than a few folks more than a little bit worried about inflation. It is axiomatic that the Fed governors are also greatly concerned. Yet they continue to pump. Why?
The answer is that they are more worried about economic collapse than they are about inflation. Fine. The thing is, inflation will be a problem sooner or later as a function of this massive and on-going liquidity injection.
So, what is "The Plan"? What is the Fed up to?
Any casual observer knows that the stock market has been grinding higher for months with the most recent decline the first since November. More and more Bullishness is being generated and more and more trust in the market's trend is being manufactured. The Fed has actually said that they want higher stock prices.
Of course they do...
Since the melt-down of '08-'09 most of the big Wall St. players have been in the hip pocket of the Government, which means that the Fed has no mere modest influence over some very big players. These players are more than able to create and maintain a trend.
Here is my speculation: I believe that the Fed knows that excess liquidity will not go into speculative real estate nor will it go into bonds, as rates are too low, plus there is a healthy respect for credit risk these days. This leaves essentially two places (at the moment) for that cash to go; Commodity speculation and the Stock Market. The Fed does not want the former (inflationary) but they DO want the latter. I suspect that the Fed is using every tool at their disposal to lure as much money as possible into the stock market.
I am speculating that the Fed is trying to create a sense of security that sucks excess liquidity from "risky commodities" to "low risk" stocks. This will help to keep inflation from exploding out of control. So far, it would appear that this is meeting with some success. It probably needs to meet with more until the economy firms and unemployment wanes.
It is important to remember that if inflation really accelerates, the Dollar will collapse and foreign investors will flee US bonds, driving rates higher. This would be DISASTROUS for the nascent recovery. Additionally, the Fed doesn't want to raise rates much themselves (on the short end) because they also don't want to be responsible for killing what little recovery there is. The thing is, they won't need to if they keep excess cash going into stocks. Further, the ever rising stock market creates foreign demand, which will tend to support the dollar as well and keeps the bond market reasonably firm.
So, assuming my speculation is correct, how long does this "stock market support" continue? My guess is that until un-employment falls to 7% or 8% give or take. The economy has to have improved enough so that there is demand for money to buy/build physical capital. When rates start to rise based upon this demand, the Fed will remove some support from the market. If prices continue to hold up, or rise, they will advise their "partners" to liquidate. Falling stock prices will likely drop rates as money flows from stocks to bonds again, lowering borrowing costs and keeping the economy humming. Prices will fluctuate more normally at that juncture.
At some point in time, the economy is going to be very healthy looking, and growth may be almost too hot and an inflation threat. This will bring the surprise. The Fed will then orchestrate a more serious decline. How will this help? Prices are set at the margin and there are times when stocks can decline precipitously on relatively little volume. I'm thinking that the Fed plans to nip inflation in the bud by sending hundreds of billions of liquidity $'s to "money heaven" by engineering a precipitous decline. If it's fast enough, it won't fee much money at all from stocks (which could then go into more inflationary assets), but rather trap that excess liquidity in stocks for the foreseeable future. This may be cynical, but I think it very likely that an academic with that much power will try to outsmart the market. It may work, too, despite the ethically questionable aspects of the plan.
Again, this is merely a speculative hypothesis, but it resonates with me. My read is that if I'm right, we're going to want to be thinking long as much as possible until the economy heats up and unemployment drops.
We published this on Traders-Talk as well, and the discussion that this generated was both insightful and voluminous. There was a lot of good analysis and further fleshing out of the concepts. I commend the discussion to your attention.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=127058
If you'd like to read our daily sentiment commentary, feel free to sign up for a free trial to the Wall Street Sentiment Daily here:
http://www.wallstreetsentiment.com/trial.htm
by Mark Young
(originally published in the Guru Review)
It is no secret that the Fed is essentially printing money. Liquidity is being created by the tens of billions daily. This has more than a few folks more than a little bit worried about inflation. It is axiomatic that the Fed governors are also greatly concerned. Yet they continue to pump. Why?
The answer is that they are more worried about economic collapse than they are about inflation. Fine. The thing is, inflation will be a problem sooner or later as a function of this massive and on-going liquidity injection.
So, what is "The Plan"? What is the Fed up to?
Any casual observer knows that the stock market has been grinding higher for months with the most recent decline the first since November. More and more Bullishness is being generated and more and more trust in the market's trend is being manufactured. The Fed has actually said that they want higher stock prices.
Of course they do...
Since the melt-down of '08-'09 most of the big Wall St. players have been in the hip pocket of the Government, which means that the Fed has no mere modest influence over some very big players. These players are more than able to create and maintain a trend.
Here is my speculation: I believe that the Fed knows that excess liquidity will not go into speculative real estate nor will it go into bonds, as rates are too low, plus there is a healthy respect for credit risk these days. This leaves essentially two places (at the moment) for that cash to go; Commodity speculation and the Stock Market. The Fed does not want the former (inflationary) but they DO want the latter. I suspect that the Fed is using every tool at their disposal to lure as much money as possible into the stock market.
I am speculating that the Fed is trying to create a sense of security that sucks excess liquidity from "risky commodities" to "low risk" stocks. This will help to keep inflation from exploding out of control. So far, it would appear that this is meeting with some success. It probably needs to meet with more until the economy firms and unemployment wanes.
It is important to remember that if inflation really accelerates, the Dollar will collapse and foreign investors will flee US bonds, driving rates higher. This would be DISASTROUS for the nascent recovery. Additionally, the Fed doesn't want to raise rates much themselves (on the short end) because they also don't want to be responsible for killing what little recovery there is. The thing is, they won't need to if they keep excess cash going into stocks. Further, the ever rising stock market creates foreign demand, which will tend to support the dollar as well and keeps the bond market reasonably firm.
So, assuming my speculation is correct, how long does this "stock market support" continue? My guess is that until un-employment falls to 7% or 8% give or take. The economy has to have improved enough so that there is demand for money to buy/build physical capital. When rates start to rise based upon this demand, the Fed will remove some support from the market. If prices continue to hold up, or rise, they will advise their "partners" to liquidate. Falling stock prices will likely drop rates as money flows from stocks to bonds again, lowering borrowing costs and keeping the economy humming. Prices will fluctuate more normally at that juncture.
At some point in time, the economy is going to be very healthy looking, and growth may be almost too hot and an inflation threat. This will bring the surprise. The Fed will then orchestrate a more serious decline. How will this help? Prices are set at the margin and there are times when stocks can decline precipitously on relatively little volume. I'm thinking that the Fed plans to nip inflation in the bud by sending hundreds of billions of liquidity $'s to "money heaven" by engineering a precipitous decline. If it's fast enough, it won't fee much money at all from stocks (which could then go into more inflationary assets), but rather trap that excess liquidity in stocks for the foreseeable future. This may be cynical, but I think it very likely that an academic with that much power will try to outsmart the market. It may work, too, despite the ethically questionable aspects of the plan.
Again, this is merely a speculative hypothesis, but it resonates with me. My read is that if I'm right, we're going to want to be thinking long as much as possible until the economy heats up and unemployment drops.
We published this on Traders-Talk as well, and the discussion that this generated was both insightful and voluminous. There was a lot of good analysis and further fleshing out of the concepts. I commend the discussion to your attention.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=127058
If you'd like to read our daily sentiment commentary, feel free to sign up for a free trial to the Wall Street Sentiment Daily here:
http://www.wallstreetsentiment.com/trial.htm
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Cleaning Up
We've still got a lot to do but Traders-Talk is getting cleaned up. We'll be doing a board upgrade very soon, which should address a lot of issues. It should be safe to browse the site, though it'll be a while before Google says so.
Let us know if your personal virus/malware scanners go off however, just in case something is hiding from me.
Let us know if your personal virus/malware scanners go off however, just in case something is hiding from me.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Video From INO
Hey guys, while I'm waiting for a couple decisions to be made, I wanted to put up this video from INO.
I'll run it on TT too, but for now, I know many are only coming here.
This is what I got from Adam:
________________________
I'll run it on TT too, but for now, I know many are only coming here.
This is what I got from Adam:
________________________
Subject: Diversifying the profitable way
http://www.ino.com/info/608/CD3524/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today we are going to take a look at MarketClub's World Cup Portfolio
that has been tracking six markets for the past three years. I think it is fair
to say that the last 36 months have presented one of the most challenging
trading environments in recent memory.
So how did we do?
http://www.ino.com/info/608/CD3524/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
I put together this very short video which is only 1 minute 45 seconds
long and gives you all the information that you need to decide whether
or not this approach is one that could work for you. Bear in mind that
the World Cup Portfolio is a leveraged portfolio unlike our "Perfect
Portfolio" which is not leveraged.
The video can be viewed right here.
http://www.ino.com/info/608/CD3524/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
I think you will find this video very informative and educational.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub
Server Down
The site server will be going down this afternoon (assuming all goes as planned) for approximately 4 hours. We will likely still have a few problems that will need to be cleaned up, but we're still at it and still kicking.
We'll advise in this space of any new developments.
Mark
We'll advise in this space of any new developments.
Mark
Monday, August 9, 2010
Taking Much Longer
Every step of the way to a clean and secure server is taking much longer than we'd expected. Part of this is making sure that whatever we do won't be wasted effort and that it both addresses the current problem AND doesn't leave us open to re-attack.
Plus, were not dealing with a single dedicated support person. We have to deal with hardware folks, then server software folks, then board software folks, and research much of this ourselves. There are additional miscommunications along the way, too, which have caused delay.
We apologize for the delays and are working hard to correct the problems.
We'll update when we have a better bead on the time for us to be back up and safe.
Plus, were not dealing with a single dedicated support person. We have to deal with hardware folks, then server software folks, then board software folks, and research much of this ourselves. There are additional miscommunications along the way, too, which have caused delay.
We apologize for the delays and are working hard to correct the problems.
We'll update when we have a better bead on the time for us to be back up and safe.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Server Move at 9:00
We'll be moving to the backup server in a little bit. Then we'll clean things up. Expect outages on T-T.com over the next several hours.
Things ought to begin moving a bit more quickly, though at some cost to us.
Cross your fingers that things go smoothly.
Things ought to begin moving a bit more quickly, though at some cost to us.
Cross your fingers that things go smoothly.
Still Moving
We're still in the process of moving to a new server. This is most frustrating.
As soon as we start putting things into the end zone we'll report on it.
Sorry for the delay.
Mark
As soon as we start putting things into the end zone we'll report on it.
Sorry for the delay.
Mark
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Temporary Server
Everything is moving to a temporary server as I type this. We could get some weird stuff for a bit.
We'll then reformat the old server.
Hopefully, everything will begin to fall into place more quickly.
We'll then reformat the old server.
Hopefully, everything will begin to fall into place more quickly.
Update 8/4/10
Yesterday afternoon we discovered that Traders-Talk had indeed been hacked. I want to thank all of you who participated in the thread and those who contacted us to help us uncover the problem.
We are currently working on the remedy and we should be back up and running by 2PM Eastern.
Of course, this means upgrades, so you can expect to see some changes in the forthcoming weeks, particularly of the security-type, but perhaps some additional tweaks as we go along.
We'll keep you updated.
TTHQ Staff
We are currently working on the remedy and we should be back up and running by 2PM Eastern.
Of course, this means upgrades, so you can expect to see some changes in the forthcoming weeks, particularly of the security-type, but perhaps some additional tweaks as we go along.
We'll keep you updated.
TTHQ Staff
Sentiment
Use this thread to discuss or update sentiment.
Our read is that partially long Bulls may be too numerous and may bring a pullback, and the OEX P/C supports that, but most our other stuff is pretty neutral.
Our read is that partially long Bulls may be too numerous and may bring a pullback, and the OEX P/C supports that, but most our other stuff is pretty neutral.
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