Sunday, June 29, 2008

Market Discussion

I have know idea when it'll be safe to open the server back up, so in the mean time, I thought I'd share this:

The Amateurs are way Beared up. About 2:1 Bears to Bulls.

The problem is, there are some speculators who are bulled-up.

What this means is that we have the minimum criteria for a nice rally once we turn, but we also lack the necessary ingredients to probe aggressively for a low.

Any thoughts?

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

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Sending you the error code I get. Maybe it will help your techs...

Semi...

Anonymous said...

I have been working on a theory... I'll post more on it later. The way I see things, there is more reason to test higher on the ES contract than there is on the SPX. I have a feeling we could see ES Futures trade at 1334-37, but the SPX during market hours not be able to get over 1316. You take a look Mark...

Semi

The Young Ones said...

Semi, that's our tech guy moving things around. Nothing to worry about there.

I note that the ES went out with a very bullish late volume tell, but that's not as useful over the weekend. The two-tiered trading though is an interesting theory. I just don't think that they can keep them 16 points apart for a full day.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, gotta think like a criminal though... I can see using a news event to jam the futures, then a failed attempt to rally. Here's another important thing to look at on the Sept Contract. Look at the daily referencing the low in March. The way it closed on the daily says it wants to test that low, yes even on lighter volume. So, whichever way we open tomorrow is probably going to be the wrong way, that's my 2 cts.... Semi.

Anonymous said...

thanks Mark and TT staff for your many efforts.

ever-increasing record short interest on the NYSE has yet to contribute to a "sustained" price advance

it will be interesting what kicks off the next short-covering rally, and for how long the rally lasts.

Ted Burge at stockcharts.com "public lists" is worth a look today.

thanks for your thoughts here Semi